In a big $1 million bet, seasoned investor Balaji Srinivasan declared on Saturday, March 18, that the United States is on the verge of hyperinflation. Curiously, he is also transferring $2 million in USDC through Medlock for the wager.
I will take that bet.
— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023
You buy 1 BTC.
I will send $1M USD.
This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k.
The term is 90 days.
All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation.
If someone knows how to do this… https://t.co/tcuBNd679T pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe
Balaji's significant investment in Bitcoin (BTC) has caused a ruckus in the crypto community forums. The wise investor's remarks come as the Fed has resumed money printing in the midst of a US financial crisis. Balaji claims:
"The Fed has chosen to monetize the debt in the messiest way possible: an orgy of money printing and bank runs. $150B has already hit the banks and more is on the way. My bet is a way to ring the fire alarm and help you get to the exit in time: Bitcoin. The only global safe haven."
Balaji forecasts that beginning on Monday, there would be significant bank withdrawals in another of his numerous tweets. He stated:
"The Fed made 100+ banks insolvent.[1] Monday will see huge withdrawals. But moving to big banks is a trap. Trillions will be printed, and you will be diluted. You need an asset that can’t be seized. Bitcoin is the only global safe haven."
Balaji's Bitcoin Bet Isn't To Be Taken Seriously
Some Bitcoin supporters have stated their belief that investors shouldn't take the tweets from Balaji seriously or fall for them as they have spread like wildfire throughout the world. Alex Kruger, a well-known market expert, wrote:
"Incredibly many taking the Balaji $BTC to $1 million in 90 days view seriously, because he is Balaji. This is an example of the cognitive bias “Appeal to Authority”. Chances of that happening are 0.0000%. The bet is insane unless there’s an ulterior motive. The issue is that a large percentage of the population is actually not intelligent enough to see this, and they are likely to gamble/invest thinking BTC may be going to $1 million soon."
According to Ali Martinez, another market analyst, Bitcoin needs to invest the equivalent of the whole Chinese GDP for it to reach $1 million in 90 days.
$18,797,203,666,237 would need to be invested into #Bitcoin to push it to $1,000,000 within 3 months. This simplified calculation doesn't account for factors such as market liquidity, order book depth, depreciation in the US dollar value, and other market dynamics. https://t.co/KzyUQ6GyXV
— Ali (@ali_charts) March 18, 2023
Even though the Balaji bet has the market in a frenzy, there is a chance that Bitcoin may reach $30,000 before the FOMC meeting the following week. In spite of the banking crisis, Bitcoin has so far demonstrated a very robust performance.
Despite the Fed's involvement last week, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank's domino effect is still growing. Last week, large institutions like JPMorgan stepped in to save the First Republic Bank. Analysts predict a never-before banks run and a much more severe contagion in the baking sector, though.
Leading proponent for the “let it burn” camp finally admits what we were dealing with: 200-500 bank failures and that’s just for starters because nobody knows how to stop a bank run when it gets that big. God help us if these angry psychos ever get the wheel. https://t.co/Ry2VO2sVkh
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) March 18, 2023
Is this the time when Bitcoin finally steps up and becomes the world's reserve currency? This will be clarified in the following weeks. Yet given BTC's recent performance, we believe that the reset has already begun.