Market Update (Nov. 28, 2022)
Bitcoin moved 8% up last week but could not break through resistance over the weekend. While we expected Bitcoin to rally higher, the market leader showed little volatility and started the new week in the red, falling from around $16,400 to test the $16,000 support.
For now, the bottom of this new range is set at $15,500, and bulls may want to wait to see how Bitcoin reacts to more downside action. On the top side, this range is capped at ~$17,500.
Ethereum also faced a lot of sell pressure today, which can be attributed to a whale moving 73,000 ETH to a centralized exchange. Implied volatility is still high for the coming weeks since we have Core PCE on Dec. 1.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is starting to top out and could potentially retrace to 3,900 before further developments. DXY is currently at 105.8 and could form a potential double bottom at 104.5.
Market Analysis:
Market Cap: $818,848,706,727
24H Volume: $45,035,474,329
BTC Dominance: 38%
ETH Dominance: 17.5%
Health Standard: 31.92 (1 to 10)
Sentiment: +23.18% (-100% to 100%)
Binance Analysis (BTC Pairs):
Gainers:
• RIF: +109%
• VIDT: +26%
• QLC: +20%
Losers:
•  MOB: -17%
•  FLUX: -12%
•  KDA: -9%
Binance Futures:
Top Gainers:
•  RAY/USDT: +28.49%
•  TRB/USDT: +22.01%
Top Losers:
•  LEVER/USDT: -32.24%
•  FTT/USDT: -15.60%
Largest Volume (24h)
•  ETH/BTC (4,133 BTC)
•  DOGE/BTC (2,119 BTC)
Daily Outlook
Volume and market cap remain pretty much the same on lower time frames, showing no momentum in favor of buyers or sellers for now. We saw some selling pressure right after our weekly close, but not enough for a breakdown confirmation. We’re still watching the market closely and waiting for further entries.
Bitcoin Recap
Just as we have been saying, the move down seemed more likely and that is what we got. There was no point in trying to overtrade a US holiday weekend, especially yesterday when Bitcoin was ranging within $100. Instead, we were right to look at strong coins in line with our expected pullback to the lower $16k area.
We can see that the move down started with BTC losing the .236 fib level. This was retested and rejected which saw the price push harder down to the 0.5 fib level. The 4h candle closed above this, so it seems we have support for now at $16,125. The price is sitting in a demand zone at the moment, but we are looking for a 4h candle close above $16.3k for continuation up.
A more lively-looking market this week, with Jerome Powell speaking, PCE data, and US Payroll figures. This will give us some nice volatility to play.
Let's smash this week too and finish the month strong!
Recapitulating Ethereum
Ethereum topped out at $1,236 and had a 6% drawdown bringing it to our current level of $1,170. We can expect to see some sideways action testing $1,1780, but ultimately it seems more likely that ETH will test $1,100 before a dead-cat bounce. The majority of the 73,000 ETH recently parked at an exchange will most likely be distributed during a bounce rather than a downtrend.
Market Scoop
Crypto:
🔹 Crypto taxation talks gain traction in the EU.
🔹 House lawmakers set first FTX hearing for Dec. 13.
🔹 Lagarde calls for broader crypto regulation following FTX collapse.
🔹 Crypto lender BlockFi files for bankruptcy protection.
🔹 Polygon bridge holds $27 million of unclaimed funds, ZenGo finds.
🔹 Binance moves $2 billion of bitcoin as part of reserves audit.
🔹 Aave pauses lending markets for 17 Ethereum-based tokens.
🔹 Kraken and ConsenSys back staking platform Kiln in $17 million round.
🔹 BlockFi owes $1 billion to just three of its largest creditors: bankruptcy filing.
🔹 'Shrimp' and 'crab' bitcoin balances hit record highs amid FTX collapse.
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Disclaimer: None of the information here constitutes financial advice and market participants are advised to conduct their own research since cryptocurrencies are speculative assets with considerable risks.